ExtZy 2013 - The World In Review

Xueyi Jiang

 

Background

ExtZy is a set of prediction markets which Z/Yen run and fund in order to learn about markets.  The “Countries” Market is one where players buy and sell shares which pay dividends based on a country’s web mentions, as calculated by search engines.  Each share has a price and dividend earnings.  Thus the price/earnings ratio (P/E) of countries in such a market is an indicator of whether or not players predict a higher than normal rate of mentions (high P/E) looking forward, or a lower than normal rate of mentions (low P/E) looking forward.

 

2013 Overview

There are 245 registered country entities on ExtZy.  74 are relatively active in this year.  96 traders participated in 2013:

Total Trades

Total Volume

Entity

Active Entity

Shareholders

Volume/Trade

Trades/Active Entity

Trades/Shareholder

117

9800

245

74

96

83.76

1.58

1.22

The trading for the year was half that of 2012 - 30,455.37 (2012: 61,800.22, a decrease of 50.72%)

 

Most Actives in 2013

Most Actives is the countries with a larger number of transactions and trade volumes in 2013.

 

Country Name

Volume

Price

Chg

%Chg

52 Week High

52 Week Low

1

United States

103

10.95

2.91

36.19%

10.95

8.04

2

United Kingdom

101

11.80

6.4

118.52%

11.80

5.40

3

Russian Federation

402

1.81

0.09

5.23%

1.81

0.62

4

Pakistan

393

2.00

-0.96

-32.43%

3.30

2.00

5

Egypt

261

3.47

0.36

11.58%

3.47

1.64

6

Madagascar

210

1.55

0.1

6.90%

1.55

0.40

7

Singapore

178

1.95

-0.95

-32.76%

3.85

1.95

8

South Africa

139

2.00

0

0.00%

29.99

2.00

9

Jordan

100

8.99

2.02

28.98%

8.99

6.97

10

Australia

83

1.98

-5.51

-73.56%

7.49

1.98

11

North Korea

20

7.51

3.4

82.73%

7.51

4.11

12

Saudi Arabia

400

2.93

0.45

18.15%

2.94

1.59

13

Taiwan, Province of China

400

2.94

1.35

84.91%

2.98

2.48

14

Portugal

363

2.52

0.72

40.00%

2.52

1.80

15

Netherlands

241

1.11

-0.88

-44.22%

2.52

1..11

 

Most Volatiles in 2013

On ExtZy, when there is an event that is likely to impact the dividend of a country (e.g., war, sporting events, celebrity death, etc.,) there is a price increase.  Most Volatiles is a list of countries on which public opinion had been affected largely and frequently in 2013.

 

Country Name

Interval Standard Deviation

Annualized Standard Deviation

52 Week High

52 Week Low

1

Bouvet Island

0.612

4.411

13.75

0.16

2

Serbia

0.556

4.013

50.00

0.87

3

South Africa

0.531

3.829

29.99

2.00

4

United States Minor Outlying Islands

0.341

2.461

0.12

0.01

5

French Southern Territories

0.331

2.390

0.67

0.06

6

Madagascar

0.246

1.776

1.55

0.40

7

Russian Federation

0.205

1.479

1.81

0.62

8

India

0.201

1.449

13.39

3.10

9

Australia

0.180

1.297

7.49

1.98

10

Moldova, Republic of

0.162

1.165

1.20

0.37


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Highest Yield Dividend Stocks in 2013

Dividends are calculated on a weekly basis based on the web mentions of each country entity on ExtZy.  Thus popular country yields will be higher than "normal".  The following 10 countries were paying dividends that range from 214.33% to nearly 845% in 2013. The dividend yields below were calculated by adding up each country’s dividend payments over the 12 months in 2013 and then dividing that figure by the closing price of each country on 31 December 2013.  The dividend yield is the dividend payout with reference to the market price of the country.  It indicates whether it is worthwhile to make an investment in a particular country.

 

Country Name

Current Dividend Yield

Current Price

Annual Dividend

1

Mayotte

845.30%

0.25

2.113

2

Macao

445.81%

0.62

2.764

3

Australia

291.78%

1.98

5.777

4

Gibraltar

258.87%

1.37

3.546

5

Barbados

251.26%

1.39

3.492

6

Singapore

250.80%

1.95

4.891

7

Moldova, Republic of

245.38%

0.37

0.908

8

Sweden

238.67%

1.70

4.057

9

Bulgaria

225.58%

1.50

3.384

10

Guernsey

214.33%

1.31

2.808

 

To focus in depth in the predictive accuracy of ExtZy, we have examined several countries which had big events in 2013 to explore whether the search spikes can indeed be predicted on ExtZy.

Snapshot – Egypt and Egyptian coup d'etat

A specific example of the market working predictively is Egypt. Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi had been effectively overthrown by the military on July. Afterwards, prices rallied on continued rumours of the unrest, which broke the 3.20 mark for the first time since January 2013. There were several transactions before unrest became severe.  It indicated that traders were expecting an increasing search trend of this country. The prices held until the end of 2013.

Egypt 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Snapshot - USA and Snowden Files

Similarly, the NSA scandal firstly broke in early June 2013 when the Guardian reported that the US was collecting the telephone records of tens of millions of Americans. Within weeks, documents had been obtained and published by media outlets worldwide. On ExtZy, players did buy largely and frequently around 20 June in anticipation of web popularity increasing again.  The prices jumped sharply to 10.95. On June 26, Mr Snowden was granted temporary asylum in Russia, which had attracted worldwide attention again.

2013-US

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Snapshot – North Korea and North Korean Crisis

ExtZy does not always respond to events in advance. Though there was one sudden spike on search volumes for North Korea on March 2013, the market was steady.

2013-Korea

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Conclusions

ExtZy, along with other prediction markets, can help predict sentiment.  So far, our ExtZy experiment does not seem to be releasing ‘hidden knowledge’, e.g. about North Korea.  However it does seem to help predict when there is a state change in sentiment, i.e. when a news event, such as Snowden or Egyptian unrest, is likely to persist.

We are keen to motivate our traders to be more participative and 'aggressive'.   ExtZy players can now have ‘negative dividends’, i.e. losses, on their holdings, so they should trade more frequently.  Looking forward to learning more in 2015!

Related Articles

ExtZy 2012 The World In Review

Professor Michael Mainelli & Xueyi Jiang

2013 March

Prediction Market: A Study Of Future Country Interest And The Market Behavior

Xueyi Jiang

2011 August