ExtZy is a prediction market game created by Z/Yen, which makes a market out of web-pages. Players can buy shares in those sites that they think will grow in popularity, and then trade their dividends in for real prizes.

ExtZy, along with other prediction markets, can help predict sentiment. So far, our ExtZy experiment does not seem to be releasing ‘hidden knowledge’, e.g. about North Korea. However it does seem to help predict when there is a state change in sentiment, i.e. when a news event, such as Snowden or Egyptian unrest, is likely to persist.

We are keen to motivate our traders to be more participative and 'aggressive'. ExtZy players can now have ‘negative dividends’, i.e. losses, on their holdings, so they should trade more frequently. Looking forward to learning more in 2015! To read more: